Thursday, June 4, 2009

06/04/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

I don’t see any edges for either bears or bulls other than a little negative divergence on SPY/QQQQ/IWM 15/30 min chart, that may mean a pullback tomorrow morning but doesn’t guarantee it. With 7 unfilled gaps on the SPY chart, still a gap up tomorrow should not easy to hold.

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10 comments:

  1. AnonymousJune 4, 2009 at 6:00 PM

    It seems like the channel on SPY 15 chart 1.0.4 was broken down. Doesn't that usually mean some downside? It seems to definitely be resisting along the point the channel broke down. I am fully short here but recognize the potential for more upside -- just not enough to scare me out yet.

    Ideally, I would hope to see no more than a small gap up tomorrow morning and a sell off into the close, in the worst case. That's only my dream. Nobody wants to sell anything anymore.

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  2. CobraJune 4, 2009 at 6:05 PM

    In this market you have to give full credit to bulls so I now neglect all the "usual" bearish signals such as channel broken/negative divergence/STO overbought etc etc.

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  3. AnonymousJune 4, 2009 at 6:14 PM

    Good point. I'm probably screwed, but I am holding my short position, even up higher than this -- not past 951 though. My timing might be off, but I'm done guessing where the top is. The bulls have gotten out of hand. If I were to guess, next week will be supremely ugly. The sentiment reading you posted a few days ago has the next 3 sessions as typically bear friendly. I can only hope for that at this point and have reasonable stops in mind. Jitters around the treasury auctions next week might be just what it takes to trigger the end of this rally.

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  4. PstrusiJune 4, 2009 at 6:30 PM

    I'll be watching all overnight action cause I think we're close once again for a short opportunity, we'll see.

    http://cyclicmarket.blogspot.com/

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  5. AnonymousJune 4, 2009 at 6:35 PM

    The XLF is going to meet some headwinds. I would not go long until this has broken above the 200 MA, which frankly, I believe to be an impossibility at this point. If it does break above it tomorrow, Monday will correct that mistake. :)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p21827468509

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  6. 2centsJune 4, 2009 at 7:59 PM

    Cobra,

    what was your statement on VIX/SPX up on the same day...the next day is an ugly or a good day?

    Thanks

    2c

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  7. CobraJune 4, 2009 at 8:00 PM

    The next day should be ugly, but it was wrong this Monday as Tuesday was up.

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  8. 2centsJune 4, 2009 at 8:53 PM

    But Cobra,

    today they, vix/spx are both rising..

    2c

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  9. AnonymousJune 4, 2009 at 10:10 PM

    Thanks for the updates. I was refreshing your blog after closing bell, but didn't get this quick summary post before I had to go. Also the timestamp shown on these posts are not eastern time.

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  10. CobraJune 4, 2009 at 10:58 PM

    2cents, VIX is down today.

    I can only post this quick summary around 6:00pm ET because only by then I could collect all the datas needed.

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