tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post3516092242799393261..comments2023-09-26T11:49:31.690-04:00Comments on Cobra's Market View: 04/08/2009 Market Recap: No TitleCobrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09332879456290234613noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-68547323799884856972009-04-09T21:58:00.000-04:002009-04-09T21:58:00.000-04:00Got out my shorts EOD Wed and spared meself the sl...Got out my shorts EOD Wed and spared meself the slaughter today. Da Bulls running rampage on WFC earnings with TARP money. Wow.Me XManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13867311283909743128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-36513874668003771862009-04-09T21:33:00.000-04:002009-04-09T21:33:00.000-04:00And I was v bullish on financials until 2 days ago...And I was v bullish on financials until 2 days ago. Right when I give up and aim for a lower entry, they blow up...greenlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16419480565369548628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-50383924906395829172009-04-09T21:31:00.000-04:002009-04-09T21:31:00.000-04:00Wow. I am truly an idiot for not picking up those...Wow. I am truly an idiot for not picking up those BAC calls I've been eyeing. <BR/><BR/>I swear whenever everyone starts getting bearish, the opposite happens in a big way.<BR/><BR/>Right now, recent activity (last few weeks) just looks like an up channel.greenlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16419480565369548628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-47227629776940096712009-04-09T21:12:00.000-04:002009-04-09T21:12:00.000-04:00this is the sentiment cycle charthttp://www.powers...this is the sentiment cycle chart<BR/><BR/>http://www.powerswings.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/15-sentiment.gifErichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05121929976564642069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-20608738339119247682009-04-09T19:43:00.000-04:002009-04-09T19:43:00.000-04:00Thank you Eric!Thank you Eric!Cobrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09332879456290234613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-79229021847315736582009-04-09T19:10:00.000-04:002009-04-09T19:10:00.000-04:00Annon,I was reading the comments on WFC at google....Annon,<BR/>I was reading the comments on WFC at google... and they are still very Bearish.<BR/><BR/>I would suggest that the "Top" will come when you can't hold yourself back from going long.<BR/><BR/>In fact it should make you sick to go short. And after doing it... You should barely be able to sleep. That is how a "top" feels to me.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05121929976564642069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-45491647717048194622009-04-09T19:07:00.000-04:002009-04-09T19:07:00.000-04:00Mixing Sentiment Trading With Technicals.If you ge...Mixing Sentiment Trading With Technicals.<BR/><BR/>If you get the technicals right, and the sentiment, You can catch the Turns.<BR/><BR/>If your bearish or bullish, to a trader doesn't matter.<BR/><BR/> Bears must Capitulate on the tops or bulls must capitulate at the bottoms....<BR/><BR/>and that is "The Turn".<BR/><BR/>I don't want to have a "Bearish or Bullish Bias", I'm here to make money.<BRErichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05121929976564642069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-47314302404398274952009-04-09T18:39:00.000-04:002009-04-09T18:39:00.000-04:00Eric,Thanks for replying. I don't agree that every...Eric,<BR/>Thanks for replying. I don't agree that everyone has to cover short and go long to mark a top. As I said above, while dumb money add to positions, smart money quietly exit and start short positions. <BR/><BR/>I subscribe to sentimentrader and some of his indicators show as much bullishness as end of May 2008 and most exceeded levels of 1/6/2009.<BR/><BR/>Even Cobra's normalized $CPC Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-78224112976135276452009-04-09T18:28:00.000-04:002009-04-09T18:28:00.000-04:00Wait... :-)Wait... :-)Cobrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09332879456290234613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-26210445435013686252009-04-09T18:25:00.000-04:002009-04-09T18:25:00.000-04:00Let me re-Edit it and Throw in a link.Let me re-Edit it and Throw in a link.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05121929976564642069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-52321920381924988842009-04-09T18:08:00.000-04:002009-04-09T18:08:00.000-04:00Wow, Eric, nice article. Mind I publishing it? And...Wow, Eric, nice article. Mind I publishing it? <BR/><BR/>And maybe pretend that I wrote it? (This is kidding)Cobrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09332879456290234613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-6552103387847504542009-04-09T17:17:00.000-04:002009-04-09T17:17:00.000-04:00It's not an exact science.I quote "Fly on Wallstre...It's not an exact science.<BR/><BR/><B>I quote "Fly on Wallstreet":</B><BR/><BR/>"Surrender<BR/>April 9, 2009 – 3:56 pm<BR/>Sold out of 85% of my SRS and FAZ positions."<BR/>Is that Capitulation? selling 85%?<BR/>I quote Cobra "I'm still bearish, "<BR/><BR/><B>have you looked at Clusterstock?</B> <BR/><BR/>"Morgan Stanley not out of the woods yet"<BR/><BR/><B>From Big Picture:</B><BR/><BR/>"Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05121929976564642069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-84434660966639012442009-04-09T16:30:00.000-04:002009-04-09T16:30:00.000-04:00Eric,You wrote: "But sentiment wise... all the top...Eric,<BR/>You wrote: "But sentiment wise... all the top callers have to STFU, for it to happen. The luke warm response to this post 2 reply's shows limited acceptance to upside notion."<BR/><BR/>I didn't get it. Would you care to explain?<BR/><BR/>BTW, today it feels like the bears capitulated. All of them, no? So now, all re in indeed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-17279418036166388752009-04-09T14:12:00.000-04:002009-04-09T14:12:00.000-04:00Cheers! Eric, keep in touch!Cheers! Eric, keep in touch!Cobrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09332879456290234613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-52107965864325223932009-04-09T13:37:00.000-04:002009-04-09T13:37:00.000-04:00If you get the technicals right, and the sentiment...If you get the technicals right, and the sentiment, If your bearish or bullish doesn't matter. Bears must Capitulate or bulls must capitulate.... <BR/><BR/>and that is the Turn.<BR/><BR/>I don't want to have a "Bearish or Bullish Bias", I'm here to make money.<BR/><BR/>We probably won't hit 1K, but when everyone is talking about it... You know they are "All In"Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05121929976564642069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-29785334022514400672009-04-09T13:30:00.000-04:002009-04-09T13:30:00.000-04:00Eric, thanks, well said. I'm still bearish, and I ...Eric, thanks, well said. <BR/><BR/>I'm still bearish, and I still don't believe that we'll see SPX at 1,000. Just I'm not brave enough to lead the charge. :-)<BR/><BR/>Let the market go first.<BR/><BR/>Cannot agree more with this: "For the most part the only analysis people want is the analysis that agrees with how they feel. And that is the easiest way to lose money."Cobrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09332879456290234613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-57449328903694375672009-04-09T13:21:00.000-04:002009-04-09T13:21:00.000-04:00If you run and EWT or Head and shoulders off that ...If you run and EWT or Head and shoulders off that move we just broke out of you get 1000SPX, or roughly the 200dma.<BR/><BR/>not that it's going to hit it...<BR/><BR/>But sentiment wise... all the top callers have to STFU, for it to happen. The luke warm response to this post 2 reply's shows limited acceptance to upside notion.<BR/><BR/>If one can't call a bottom... why would you try and call a Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05121929976564642069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-8357700292392579702009-04-09T08:54:00.000-04:002009-04-09T08:54:00.000-04:00Well, CPCE wasn't broken, yeah, a little broken, b...Well, CPCE wasn't broken, yeah, a little broken, but according to my past experiences, it didn't count.<BR/><BR/>I'm not a fan of seasonality either.<BR/><BR/>My point is before the institution enters into pure distribution mode, bears should be careful. No hurry rush in.Cobrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09332879456290234613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-51598503610061507092009-04-09T08:45:00.000-04:002009-04-09T08:45:00.000-04:00Cobra,I think your bullish bias made you cheat a b...Cobra,<BR/>I think your bullish bias made you cheat a bit on the CPCE chart, bacause the double conforming line was broken on 4/7/09. I use CPC, CPCE, and ISE sentiment indicators (in a different way though) and my results show a clear turn in sentiments. Smart money are exiting the markets while dumb money are buying. It will take some time for following indicators to turn and show the true Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1523319707289548972.post-32511057896995104082009-04-09T01:21:00.000-04:002009-04-09T01:21:00.000-04:00Nice work Cobra,That was quite a reversal in the f...Nice work Cobra,<BR/><BR/>That was quite a reversal in the futures overnight. Maybe a little more upside? The big institutional selling hasn't seemed to kick in yet. While I think things are starting to look wobbly, seems there are almost too many people out there (myself included) that think the market is going to correct. just a thought...<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, the $SPXA50 is getting greenlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16419480565369548628noreply@blogger.com