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*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: JULY IS THE BEST PERFORMING DOW AND S&P MONTH OF THE 3RD QUARTER
See 07/02 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: REBOUND (IF ANY) THEN MOST LIKELY THERE’LL BE A 2ND LEG DOWN
See 07/02 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: MOST LIKELY THE JULY 1ST LOW WILL BE REVISITED
Nothing to say today. Please take a look at today’s After Bell Quick Summary. Neither bulls nor bears have much edge for tomorrow when SPX down 5 days the rebound for 1 day. So I have no idea about whether the rebound was over or not. However, chances are pretty good that the 07/01 low will be revisited eventually.
Posted below are all the cases since year 2000 when SPX was down 5 days in a row then rebound for 1 day. Two things I’ve noticed:
- The low before the rebound is not THE LOW. Soon or later it’ll be revisited. This fits well with my forecast for expecting a 2nd leg down.
- The rebound today is the 3rd weakest (SPX up 0.54%). This feels bad as seldom did an important bottom start with a rebound this weak. The 1st and 2nd places were on 05/14/2001 and 02/25/2004 (see blue cycles). Both happened on an uptrend, although the SPX was down 5 days in a row but the pullback size was very small, so actually neither cases could apply to what happens now.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.