08/19/2010 Market Recap: Rebound May Not Over Yet

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 1 of 2 are SELL   Sell signal to be confirmed. Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is down but I hold no short position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/26 08/24 / 08/23 8/23 Next pivot date: 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH BEARISH *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. T2105 too high. 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: too low, still at top? 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI a little high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model 08/17 L 1.9*ATR(10)

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLLISH

See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

1. The correction since 04/26 isn’t over. See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.
2. The 07/01 low may be tested. See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND TARGET 1106 TO 1110, COULD LAST TO 08/23

Will temporarily maintain the price and time target mentioned in 08/17 Market Recap. Today’s drop is not enough to declare that the rebound since the 08/16 low is dead. My main argument is that since 04/26, all rebound had lasted at least 5 trading days, therefore it’s quite logical to assume the current rebound shall last at least 5 trading days. In another word, before the 08/16 low at 1069 is broken, I’d consider that the rebound is still alive. If, say, tomorrow the market decisively break below the 08/16 low, then bulls better be careful, since the rebound this time couldn’t even last for the minimum 5 trading days like before, therefore it might mean some change in characters in the current market trend.

 

Besides the above, I have nothing else to say. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator, if use today’s NYSE total active symbol which is 3,108. 3108 * 2.2% = 68.73, so today’s NYLOW at 70 is enough to to confirm the Hindenburg Omen triggered a few days ago. Whether does this indeed mean the market will crash, well, I don’t know, let’s wait and see.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	UP
CANADA	UP
BOND	UP
EURO	UP	*6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: US dollar rebound tomorrow?
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP
OIL	*DOWN
ENERGY	*DOWN
FINANCIALS	*DOWN
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	UP