08/04/2010 Market Recap: Could be up more but don’t get too bullish

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is up but I hold no long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/6,8/11,8/26 08/09 / 08/08 8/2,8/9,8/11,8/23 Next pivot date: 08/09 – 08/11, 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so market bottomed? BEARISH *6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: A little bit low.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 07/15 L N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model 07/20 L *07/22 low *Adjust stop loss.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE FIRST NINE TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST ARE HISTORICALLY WEAK

See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION SINCE 04/26 ISN’T OVER, THE REBOUND SINCE 07/01 IS NEAR END

See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: STILL HAS SOME ROOM ON THE UPSIDE, BUT DON’T GET TOO BULLISH

The bottom  line, the trend is up. From chart 1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), I see an Ascending Triangle breakout so there’s still some room on the upside.

 

Just don’t get too bullish. The T2122 and T2112 mentioned since 08/02 Market Recap are still high; 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals is a little too low and too large the negative divergence is on chart 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min). All are still not at an extreme level but close, so I don’t think there’s much room left on the upside. I’ll maintain the forecast for a top around 08/06 pivot date (see 08/03 Market Recap for more details).

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min).

 

6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals.

 

T2122.

 

T2112.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Bear Flag?; EEM:$SPX too high.
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45; Bear Flag?
CANADA	*UP	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	DOWN	*6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar means UUP rebound tomorrow?
GDX	DOWN
OIL	UP	4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): Bear Flag?
ENERGY	UP	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	UP
REITS	UP
MATERIALS	UP