SEASONALITY: THE FIRST NINE TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST ARE HISTORICALLY WEAK
See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION SINCE 04/26 ISN’T OVER, THE REBOUND SINCE 07/01 IS NEAR END
The market action today answered the question I raised in 07/30 Market Recap: Yes, we did have a new recovery high. However, as you’ll see in the short-term session below, there’re 2 very important signals are now overbought, so the chances are very good that we’ll see at least a short-term pullback. So I’ll temporarily maintain the forecast below (will adjust the forecast once I see how the market actually pulls back):
- The correction since 04/26 is not over.
- The rebound since 07/01 could be very close to an end.
SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE BIT OVERBOUGHT
I know once you see the title above, the very first reflection will be overbought can be more overbought. However, I’ve explained this in the 07/26 Market Recap that the overbought signals I watch are by no means any ordinary signals and I believe you should still remember what happened when I used “overbought” as title in 07/26 Market Recap. Based on my many years observation these signals should have some credibility. Of course, today is not extreme enough to use the “overbought” as the title, but I think it’s no harm to remind you in advance especially if the market rises huge again tomorrow.
T2122, my ultimate weapon for watching overbought/oversold.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|TREND||COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.|
|QQQQ||UP||4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.|
|EMERGING||UP||4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Bear Flag?; EEM:$SPX too high.|
|EUROPEAN||UP||4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45; Bear Flag?|
|CANADA||DOWN||4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.|
|GOLD||DOWN||*6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar may mean US$ rebound tomorrow.|
|OIL||UP||4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): Bear Flag?|
|ENERGY||UP||4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.|