11/03/2008 Market Recap: Waiting Mode

Today is an inside day with low volume, and the market was waiting for the election result tomorrow evening.  The following three charts show how the market went in the recent three election days.  If the market consolidated with small candles prior to election day, it showed a big candle after that.  Unfortunately the direction could not be predicted.  From the perspective of technical analysis, the market is very overbought and will pull back sooner or later.  Therefore if the rally continues tomorrow, it is prudent to lock a part of the profit and not to bet the big event.  On the other hand, if the market pulls back tomorrow, it could be a chance to buy dip because once the overbought gets corrected, the possibility of rally on the day after tomorrow should be higher than the possibility of further rally tomorrow while the market keeps extreme overbought.

11/07/2000 election: this may make more sense because it was in a bear market.  However the situation was unusual so the selling off afterward was expected.

11/05/1996 election:

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals.  Several overbought signals on the chart, where NYMO and NYADV are very accurate.

1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily).  It is overbought, and STO is at a level where it usually reversed in the past.  Five up days with decreasing volume causes extreme divergence between the price and volume which are the most bearish.  So it is due for a pullback.

1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships.  The dominant price-volume relationship today is 1159 stocks price up volume down.  According to the statistics, the market will pull back tomorrow or as late as the next day.  However because of the influence of election, this factor should be ignored temporarily in my opinion.  For your information only.

1.4.4 TSE McClellan Oscillator.  Canadian market pulled back today but it is still overbought which can be seen on the breadth.