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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

11/25/2008 Market Recap: No title

Tomorrow the market may still pull back since the short-term signals which supported the pullback listed in yesterday report are still there.  Today we have two mid-term buy signals, but it is too early to draw a conclusion that the intermediate-term trend is up before knowing how big the pullback is.

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signal.  All problems are explained on this chart.  Black candle with high probability of reversal, oversold VIX ENV, TICK closed above 1000, and three up days with decreasing volume which is a negative price-volume relationships, all are yelling short-term pullback.  On the other hand, what is different from the conventional wisdom is that, the statistics show that oversold VIX ENV and overbought TICK often show up when the market is relatively strong, the market may pullback in the short term however a decent rally can be expected over a longer period.  (statistics is at http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/05/is-low-vix-short-trigger.html).

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1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, 1207 stocks price up volume down, bearish price-volume relationship for two days, this also means the market is due for a pullback.

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0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights.  Here is the overview of all signals.  CPC is very low at 0.79 today, which isn't a good sign.

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3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield.  This is why I have a little hope about an intermediate-term up, ROC 30 is going further down.  At such a level, bond has little yield and the market may likely bounce back up.  You may check out the accuracy of TNX ROC30 in the past: 8.0.4 Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2005-2008, 8.0.5 Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2001-2004.

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3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily).  TLT is possibly a hanging man, and there are several gaps below the current level.  Furthermore, 3.0.0 has shown that the bond yield is very low, so I doubt how big the upside room is for TLT.  And it is reasonable to believe TLT has formed a hanging man pattern and due for a pullback, which may cause a rally of the stock market.

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Posted by Cobra at 11:51 PM

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