Not much to talk about today. In the short term the market is neutral, while the intermediate term it’s still overbought. It seems the pullback would never happen, however I believe this situation won’t last for too long. My wild guess is that, the market tends to walk symmetrically as what we’ve seen in nature very often. Prior to this rally, there was no decent rebound during 18 trading days, so this rally may last 18 trading days as well without significant pullback. Note that today is the 13th trading day, 5 more days to go?
Let’s check out how overbought the market is at this point of time. The bottom line is whatever overbought shall be corrected by sell off sooner or later.
2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator. Overbought, the overbought setup on McClellan Oscillator is fairly accurate.
T2122 from Telechart, 4 week New High/Low Ratio is still overbought. This indicator is also quite accurate.
0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals. STO has reached a new high while NYADV and NYUPV are still overbought.
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ReplyDelete5 more days to go, i agree 100% with the ezact target myself!!!
April 2nd is the top. (psychological, fundamental and trend reasons i posted of, imo)
as long as the vix closes OVER 37.5 ish, a nasty turn is coming, imo.
April 2nd, is that day, imo.
Hi Cobra,
ReplyDeleteFive more trading days would give us that end of quarter paint - then we can tank!
Thanks for all your hard work!
Thank you once again Cobra, you've satiated my TA needs for one more day.
ReplyDeleteCobra,
ReplyDeleteThanks for all your work. I believe the end of quarter move is occurring now. Last trade day for quarter is either Thurs 3/26 or Tues. 3/31/09 depending on the organization's convention. Most Funds use settlement date therefore I believe Fri or at latest Mon. we get the selloff.
Hi Cobra,
ReplyDeleteThe T2122 chart is very revealing re: the extend of the overbought situation. Do you have longer term T2122 charts to backtest?
Also, what are you targets for the selloff? Are we talking a 750-780 pause in the new bull or a retest of 666?
Thanks! You are the best!
Re: end of quater effect. I went back to the 2007 and 2008 charts and did not see a spike during 3/31-4/1. Just the opposite (but mild).
ReplyDeleteAwesome work as always Cobra- I actually can't believe the market continues to post gains. Did you see the SOLAR group today?! Holy moly
ReplyDeleteFSLR, STP, TSL, YGE
http://www.bigmovingstock.com
looks like the vix is loosing the 200dma, which should bring a huge wave of new institutional longs
ReplyDeleteCobra,
ReplyDeleteThank you for the great work.
Please consider adding an IWM *Weekly* chart.
Thanks again!
Hi, about adding chart, just hope you could understand, for 80 of 102 charts in my public list, I have to watch them one by one, even without doing anything, simplely clicking these 80 charts one by one and above all every day, is a very tedious task. (You can try the same thing by turning 80 pages one page by one page, for any book, for every day then guess, you could understand, how hard for me to add even a single chart.) So actually I'm trying my best to reduce some charts if they're not absolutely necessary. Hope you could understand. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteAbout T2122, I have the chart, but I don't have the time for the back test. From the chart, I can see it's very effective.
ReplyDeleteIf the market keeps going like this without any meaningful pullback, then I really really doubt how far it can go, so once pullback starts, guess it won't be 750 or 780, instead it should be a new low.
I meant if you could post longer term T2122. I can do the back testing. It sounds like $NYHLR should be the equivalent but it is not.
ReplyDeleteRE: 80 charts.
ReplyDeleteI agree, it takes a lot of time to click thruogh them all. They all seem good though.
For T2122, how can I give you the longer term? the largest screenshot I can create is the size of my monitor.
ReplyDelete