Live Update

Saturday, July 9, 2011

07/08/2011 Market Outlook (Could see some weakness the next week)

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS THE NEXT WEEK

Two cents:

  1. Could see some weakness the next week, at least won’t rally huge.
  2. Still expect higher high ahead as mentioned in 07/07 Market Outlook. The reason I reiterate here is to imply, although I expect some weakness the next week, but I don’t mean drop right away, could be some back and forth, and usually the 07/07 highs would be revisited first.

Why expect some weakness the next week?

  • As mentioned in 07/08 Trading Signals, red Non Farm Payroll day most likely means a reversal. The chart below highlighted all the red Non Farm Payroll days since the 2009 bull market. Clearly we can see there’s only 1 exception out of 10, so although superstitious it sounds but the odds just are too high to be ignored.

RedNFP

  • Although the Friday intraday feels very bullish but the fact the daily hollow red bar formed near highs usually means a top, besides, the ChiOsc is way too high now.

QQQWithChiOsc

  • Nothing on Earth is beyond gravity, so MACD Hist cannot stay high for ever, the chart below at least doesn’t agree a huge rally the next week.

QQQWithMACDHist

  • The chart below is from Schaeffer, seems bearish on July Expiration Week.

JulyExpirations

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY BEARISH FRIDAY, BEARISH JULY EXPIRATION WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday before July expiration, Dow up 6 of last 7.
  2. July expiration day, Dow down 6 of last 10, off 390 points (4.6%) in 2002.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 *NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP *NAADV MA(10) and ChiOsc too high.
IWM & Weekly UP *ChiOsc too high.
SSEC & Weekly *UP  
EEM & Weekly UP
XIU & Weekly DOWN *The last 4 bars don’t look good.
DAX & Weekly UP *The last 4 bars don’t look good.
TLT & Weekly DOWN  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly *UP *Symmetrical Triangle?
USO & Weekly *UP *Bearish Abandoned Baby?
XLE & Weekly UP *Evening Star? ChiOsc too high.
XLF & Weekly UP
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly UP *ChiOsc too high.
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
blog comments powered by Disqus

Disclaimer

The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and chartbook is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market recap do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor.

This websites provides third-party websites for your convenience but the author does not endorse, approve, or certify the information on other websites, nor does the author take responsibility for a part or all materials on the third-party websites which are not maintained by the author.