07/27/2011 Market Outlook (Rebound maybe but lower close ahead)

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND AS EARLY AS TOMORROW BUT LOWER CLOSE AHEAD

Today’s market can be represented by 0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights:

• A little oversold in the short-term (Remember all the indicators I used to watch the short-term overbought/oversold are no ordinary indicators?), so chances are we may see a rebound as early as tomorrow.
• Intermediate-term doesn’t look good, or more precisely, rebound, if any, is sell. Although the primary sell signal of Non-Stop is not sell yet but the other 3 major signals, NYSI, BPSPX and BPNDX, are all on the sell side now which usually means unpleasant ahead. For example, the recent 2 times those 3 signals happened before the primary sell signal was on 01/25/2010 and 05/03/2010, especially the 05/03/2010 case, I hope you still remember the 05/06 crash, don’t you?

The charts below mostly argue for a rebound tomorrow (could be huge) but all are saying that the selling is not over yet. All charts should be clear enough, so no more words needed. (I believe most of you here are for my charts not my beautiful Chinese English, right? So maybe it’s a good idea that I simply present charts and say less. Let me know if you don’t like this style, thanks.)

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY BUT BULLISH WHOLE WEEK

See 07/22 Market Outlook for more details.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July.  Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
• 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/20 Market Outlook: Multiple evidences arguing for more pullbacks ahead. Also 2 more evidences in 07/25 Market Outlook.
• 07/22 Market Outlook: Bearish on AAPL, therefore QQQ as well.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term UP 3 of 6 *OVERSOLD

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP *NAMO oversold. IWM & Weekly UP *Beware of 1-2-3 Trend Change. SSEC & Weekly UP Big red bar usually means a start of downtrend, so be careful here.  EEM & Weekly UP   XIU & Weekly UP *Beware of 1-2-3 Trend Change. DAX & Weekly UP   TLT & Weekly DOWN   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly UP   XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly DOWN IYR & Weekly UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful. XLB & Weekly UP *Beware of 1-2-3 Trend Change.

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.