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Sunday, December 7, 2008

12/05/2008 Market Recap: An interesting chart

The market reaction on Friday was good according to 8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule.  However on the daily chart there is no breakout yet, and the possibility of extended ranging-bounding is still there.  Over the short term, the market might at least pull back in the early morning of Monday because of the overbought on the 15-min chart.  Afterward how the market will goes, I have no idea since many short-term indicators are neutral.  However, when I was reorganizing my chart book I found an interesting phenomena of ChiOsc indicator of Japanese Yen.  If this phenomena still holds, very likely the Friday rally will be extended.

Here is the relationship between ChiOsc indicator of FXY and the stock market.  Recently Yen rallied substantially without the confirmation of ChiOsc, in fact this indicator is still negative.  The similar scenario happened three times this year, and all at the market bottom.

1

 0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals.  Among those short-term signals, almost all are neutral except the overbought NYMO.

2

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min).  Two gaps on the chart have not been filled yet.  The head and shoulders bottom pattern is not confirmed yet because the neck line isn't broken out.

3

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min).  RSI is overbought, so the market might pull back to some extent in the morning of Monday.

4

3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily).  The crude oil is oversold and should be due for a rebound according to magnifying sell volume.

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Posted by Cobra at 3:02 PM

3 comments:

  1. AnonymousDecember 8, 2008 at 8:32 AM

    Just thought I would tell you that I appreciate your analysis. It's one of the first things I do each morning is check your morning blogs.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousDecember 8, 2008 at 9:30 PM

    Each day I check your Market View, study the charts, and vote. Thank you for sharing your expertise. I notice that you use SMA and not EMA. Do you have a simple reason for that? Also, am I correct that you use Log Scale on all of your charts whether long-term or short-term? Any comment on that? Thanks again. Paul

    ReplyDelete
  3. CobraDecember 8, 2008 at 11:02 PM

    No particular reason for using SMA and EMA.

    Yes, I use Log scale for all my charts, this is a must for drawing trend line.

    Best regards,
    Cobra

    ReplyDelete

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