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Friday, December 12, 2008

12/11/2008 Market Recap: Bull Flag?

Today the market dropped down, many people may feel very bearish.  However, I don't see many bearish signs on the charts so far, on the contrary all short term overbought signals have been fixed today.  Therefore the pullback should be normal.  Still the simple method that I mentioned previously, after three down days bears only got back Monday's rally, based on 8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule, this is still a buyable dip.  Of course, since auto bailout might fail or be postponed to the next week, and there could be selling on news even if it does pass, I am not suggesting to buy this dip.  From the perspective of technical analysis, today is not bad -- if TA is still useful.  Because of oversold RSI on SPX 15-min chart, the market might bounce back tomorrow morning or during the trading hours.  Whether or not it will close in green, I don't know.

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals.  Basically three down days claimed back Monday's rally.  Compare with the second green comment from the left on 8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule, you will know what I mean.

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1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min).  On the chart, the pattern is obvious bull flag.  It can also be considered as to fill the gap on Monday, plus testing back the neck line of head and shoulders bottom.  Therefore it's not bad.  Tomorrow bulls will have multiple support levels, should any level holds the overall up trend will be intact.  Considered nearly oversold RSI and very negative TICK, some support might hold tomorrow.  Note that the last Friday low 82.24 is the last hope of bulls.

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 1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min).  RSI is oversold on the chart.  Because there is no positive divergence on the chart, tomorrow we may see a lower low.  Possibly the market will bounce back up and then drop down again, or sell off first and then bounce back during the day.  Anyhow the oversold RSI has to be corrected eventually.

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6 comments:

  1. Cobra,

    As I write this comment in the mid day, the US markets erase early losses. If your bull flag expectation will really happen, how much is your target the SPX will move upward? or is it just to complete this current weekly bull candle and will be followed by a downward move on the coming weeks?

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  2. Good question by "The Conqueror". Cobra, do you offer your views for the big picture? Are we currently in just a bear market rally? Do you see more downside in the intermediate future? Will we break down to new lows? Just a re-test, or substantialy below the 2002 lows? Thank you for your views.
    Paul

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  3. I think we're in for a 1 to 2 months bear market rally which in the best cases will carry us to MA200.

    Normally, chart 0.0.3 reflects my view for intermediate-term. I don't generally against the intermediate-term signals unless I see extreme short-term conditions. So, for example now, since 0.0.3 has all the required intermediate-term buy signals, my main focus is to buy dip, I'll try not to short unless I see lots lots of overbought signals.

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  4. Hi!

    In your comments for Friday chart you changed your positive view of the previous day to quite negative, even though Friday was an up day. What happened? Was the Friday so much overbought?

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  5. Not very negative, just a concern. You know I've been trying to be neutral, so I must report whatever I saw.

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