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Thursday, December 18, 2008

12/18/2008 Market Recap: 2 down days in a row finally

Today it's the first time the market went down for two days in a row in December.  However according to 8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule, this dip was a buy because two down days failed to take off the rally on Tuesday, which means bears are weaker.  On SPX daily chart, surprisingly there is only one time the market down for three days since Oct 10th, this means the probability of market down tomorrow is relatively small.  On the intraday chart of SPY, both RSI and STO are very close to oversold, therefore even if the market doesn't bounce back up tomorrow morning, it could do so during the day.  However the breadth is a bit overbought or close to overbought, so it's prudent to lock the profit should the market rallies substantially.

Evidences to support the bounce back tomorrow morning:

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), from the RSI and STO I think that even if the market goes further down it should not be significant.  If the rebound doesn't happen in the morning, it could do afterward.

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1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min).  RSI on the 15-min chart was extremely oversold once a while, which means the downside space is limited, and the rebound will be either morning or the afternoon.

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Why it's better to lock the profit if the market goes up substantially:

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, ascending triangle or rising wedge is not broken yet, good.  NYMO is still very close to overbought level, and STO on the top is not far from the overbought region.  You may refer to 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily) to see how VIX is oversold.

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2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily).  Previously I mentioned that it is not a big deal VIX breaks out ENV10 at the downside, however it will be an extreme case if ENV20 denoted by the red curves gets broken.  Note that VIX is not far from ENV20.  If VIX drops down tomorrow, the pattern could be a confirmed double top, which is a good news to the market over the intermediate term.  However in the short term it would be extremely oversold, and the market could pull back in the short term.

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T2122 of Telechart is going up continuously today.  If the market soars up tomorrow, it could go to overbought region, which means the market would pull back in the short term.

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SPX Climactic Volume Indicator (CVI), all overbought indicators have been corrected.

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Posted by Cobra at 10:45 PM

1 comment:

  1. AnonymousDecember 19, 2008 at 9:54 AM

    Thank you, Senor Pan,

    Wish the CVI hadn't retreated that much. Kind of muddies the water a tad. Choppy rally may have to limp a little higher a little longer. But i'm waiting in the bushes with weapons.

    Regards,
    Monsieur dave

    ReplyDelete

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