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Tuesday, December 29, 2009

12/29/2009 Market Recap: Bearish Reversal Day

Summary:

More evidences point to a short-term top coming.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Up Neutral  

II Survey: Historical low number of bears.
3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month?
Short-term Up Neutral  

0.0.9 CPC/CPCI: Topped?
1.0.2 SPY: 15 unfilled gaps.
12/23 Recap: Too many bearish extremes.
12/29 Recap: *Bearish reversal day.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE. 
Take profit whenever you see appropriate.
ST Model 12/21 L

 

 Breakeven
Reversal Bar 12/21 L

*Adjust Stop Loss

 12/24 Low

 
NYMO Sell  

 
VIX ENV        
Other Signals 12/28 S 2xATR(10)

2% stop for SPY, 4% for 2xETF.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BREAKOUT BUT I'M NOT CONVINCED

Nothing new, breakout but I'm not convinced, see 12/24/2009 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A PULLBACK SOON

Nothing new too, still looking forward to a short-term pullback. Two more evidences:

1. SPY Bearish Reversal Day, take a look at what happened thereafter.

 SPYBearishReversalDay

2. 1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min), looks like a cycle top.

 SPY60minCycle

The most recent Indicators At Extremes from www.sentimentrader.com, number of indicators at bearish extremes are still very high.

IndicatorsAtExtremes

The bottom line, no doubt this is an uptrend and the Santa Rally is supposed to end on 1/5/2010, so, sure, bear can bet its luck here, just be cautious, try best not to lose another CLAW AGAIN. LOL

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

Posted by Cobra at 7:26 PM
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