02/16/2010 Market Recap: Follow Through Wanted!

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 5 of 9 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Bottom is close according CPC MA10. 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min): *Ascending Triangle confirmed. Target $111.72. BEARISH 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low. 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases): Topped? 02/12 Market Recap: Seasonality is generally bearish next week. 2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing: *Overbought. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model     Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ   IWM   *ChiOsc too high. CHINA Down Double Top confirmed. EMERGING Down CANADA FINANCIALS Down Could be a confirmed Head and Shoulders Top. REITS   MATERIALS   ENERGY Down OIL   GOLD Down DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28.  Black bar, could pullback. BOND Down

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL PULLBACK TARGET MET BUT COULD BE MORE

No update, see 02/05/2010 Market Recap, Fib 38.2% retracement target was met, but I suspect there’s more. There’s a chance that after the pullback is over, we’ll see a new high followed by a bigger pullback thereafter.

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A VERY SHORT-TERM PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW  

Very short-term is very overbought after the huge rally today. If the correction starting from Jan wasn’t over then we should see a pullback tomorrow. I’ve listed all the not so bull friendly factors below, as you can see, there are quite some so if the market could ignore all those and keep rising tomorrow then things indeed are different now perhaps the past year’s “mad cow” is back. So again whether we see a follow through tomorrow is very important.

The Moon still argues for a top. Let’s give her one more chance.

As mentioned in 02/12 Market Recap, statistically seasonality is not bull friendly, especially for the next three days.

As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, RSI and ChiOsc in chart 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min) are overbought now and these 2 indicators are quite reliable. And here’s more, the 3 major short-term indicators form SentimenTrader are also very overbought now.

 

Lastly let’s take a look at today’s “Selling on Strength”, all are heavy weight big caps and almost every of them has the block sell more than half of its total down tick today. This is just for record only, because I never paid enough attention to this kind of situation, so I really don’t know if it’s normal or not.

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in SELL mode, only SHORT candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Today’s screener has 7 stock found.

 

According to the entry rule, RSG found on last Friday wasn’t confirmed.