INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL PULLBACK TARGET MET BUT COULD BE MORE
No update, see 02/05/2010 Market Recap, Fib 38.2% retracement target was met, but I suspect there’s more. There’s a chance that after the pullback is over, we’ll see a new high followed by a bigger pullback thereafter.
SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A VERY SHORT-TERM PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
Very short-term is very overbought after the huge rally today. If the correction starting from Jan wasn’t over then we should see a pullback tomorrow. I’ve listed all the not so bull friendly factors below, as you can see, there are quite some so if the market could ignore all those and keep rising tomorrow then things indeed are different now perhaps the past year’s “mad cow” is back. So again whether we see a follow through tomorrow is very important.
The Moon still argues for a top. Let’s give her one more chance.
As mentioned in 02/12 Market Recap, statistically seasonality is not bull friendly, especially for the next three days.
As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, RSI and ChiOsc in chart 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min) are overbought now and these 2 indicators are quite reliable. And here’s more, the 3 major short-term indicators form SentimenTrader are also very overbought now.
Lastly let’s take a look at today’s “Selling on Strength”, all are heavy weight big caps and almost every of them has the block sell more than half of its total down tick today. This is just for record only, because I never paid enough attention to this kind of situation, so I really don’t know if it’s normal or not.
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in SELL mode, only SHORT candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Today’s screener has 7 stock found.
According to the entry rule, RSG found on last Friday wasn’t confirmed.