02/24/2010 Market Recap: Repeats the post reversal bar pattern?

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 8 of 8 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH BEARISH 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low.  0.0.8 SPX:CPCE: A top could be confirmed. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): *13 unfilled up gaps. 6.4.7 NYSE Tick Watch (60 min): *A little too long without -1,000 readings. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model     Reversal Bar       NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ   IWM   ChiOsc too high. CHINA Down Double Top. EMERGING Down CANADA FINANCIALS Down REITS   MATERIALS   ENERGY Down Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown. OIL   ChiOsc high. GOLD Down DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom. BOND Down

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

See 02/19/2010 Market Recap, not sure about the market direction, in wait and see mode.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE A NEW RECOVERY HIGH BUT LIKELY TO PULLBACK BIG THEREAFTER

The rebound today fits the post reversal bar pattern I mentioned in 02/22 Market Recap and 02/23 Market Recap. Now take a look at the most recent charts below, so far exactly repeats the past patterns, right?

 

So there could be a new recovery high (higher than the Monday high) tomorrow or Friday. The target could be to fill the gap above as illustrated in chart 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min).

 

And after the new recovery high, if the past post reversal bar pattern still applies, there could be a bigger pullback. Below are 3 additional reasons to expect the pullback:

1. 0.0.8 SPX:CPCE, the trend line held so the top could be confirmed now.
2. 1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily), 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases), multiple cycle due date on March 1st, so up until March 1st, then March 1st could be a top.
3. 6.4.7 NYSE Tick Watch (60 min), no -1,000 TICK readings for too long, so there could be a panic sell very soon. The Wednesday’s pullback was very special because there’s no -1,000 TICK readings while SPY dropped more than 1%. The past similar cases are: 01/12/2010, 01/09/2009 and 05/11/2009, check by yourself to see what had happened thereafter.

 

1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min), just to remind, there’s a cycle due at 3:00pm ET so if the market keeps rising tomorrow, it could pullback right before the close.

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.