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SHORT-TERM: DOUBLE TOP OR ASCENDING TRIANGLE, WE HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
Once again the market opened high and closed lower. However it doesn’t mean bearish yet because even on an intraday chart there’s no lower low yet. From the chart below, one could argue for a potential Double Top while the other argue for an Ascending Triangle. So we need see tomorrow.
Overall, lots of bad signs, just since bulls have YES WE CAN, so all I can say now are bears may have a tiny tiny little little hope. (Well, ask yourself if you ever believe those bad signs at all. If the answer is no, then perhaps this time they will work. LOL)
6.4.2c Extreme TICK Readings Watch, the very unique thing today is again an extremely low TICK reading was recorded, so very likely a lower low or close ahead.
0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, too many black bars which in the past one or at most two black bars would mean a pullback. Also pay attention to a potential 1-2-3 trend change setup.
0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，VIX could have broken its bullish Falling Wedge therefore is not good for SPX.
Of course the breakout of the bullish Falling Wedge in the chart above still needs a confirmation tomorrow, but, see chart below, if VIX leads SPX still works, then SPX should pullback pretty soon.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED, PIVOT DATE EITHER ON 10/25 OR AROUND 11/04
Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view. We may have passed the pivot day on 10/25 or the next pivot day could be 11/04. Below are summaries of all the arguments supporting my intermediate-term bearish view:
- As mentioned in 10/29 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
- As mentioned in 10/29 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
- As mentioned in 10/29 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
- As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.
- As mentioned in 10/22 Market Recap, NYSI Weekly STO(5,3,3) sell signal means choppy ahead.
SEASONALITY: LAST 2 MONTHS OF YEAR ARE BULLISH
See 10/29 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 10/15 L | |
| NDX Weekly | %B too high with negative divergence. NASI weekly STO(5,3,3) sell signal. | |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | ||
| CHINA | 07/15 L | Primary downtrend line breakout not confirmed. |
| CHINA Weekly | High %B with negative divergence plus stalled under primary bear trend line. Pullback? | |
| EEM | Could be a Symmetrical Triangle in the forming, so one more push up? | |
| EEM Weekly | ||
| XIU.TO | 08/31 L | *Breakdown trend line then back test the previous high? |
| XIU.TO Weekly | Testing Fib 61.8%. | |
| TLT | 1-2-3 trend change confirmed, the intermediate-term trend is down. ChiOsc is too low though. | |
| TLT Weekly | ||
| FXE | Could be a Symmetrical Triangle in the forming, so one more push up? Pay attention to volume surge on UUP, US$ may very close to a bottom. | |
| FXE Weekly | Stalled at Fib confluences area. | |
| GLD | Watch for potential 1-2-3 trend change! Bump and Run Reversal in the forming? *Bearish reversal bar. | |
| GLD Weekly | ||
| GDX | 10/29 L | Watch for potential 1-2-3 trend change! *Bearish reversal bar. |
| GDX Weekly | ||
| USO | *Bull Flag breakout to be confirmed. | |
| WTIC Weekly | ||
| XLE | 6/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | %B too high with negative divergence. | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | Head and Shoulders Top in the forming? | |
| IYR | Testing trend line support. | |
| IYR Weekly | Home builders are lagging. | |
| XLB | *11/02 L | |
| XLB Weekly |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results.
