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SHORT-TERM: HIGHER HIGH GUARANTEED, NEED WATCH SOME BEARISH EXTREMES THOUGH
No argue, we had a clear breakout and also because today is a Major Accumulation Day (NYSE Up Volume : NYSE Down Volume >= 9), so an immediate higher high was almost guaranteed and bears will have to wait until the next consolidation area before considering any possible counterstrikes. And also therefore my intermediate-term bearish view needs to be reassessed. Although my call for the pivot time window could be as late as 11/08 (see 10/29 Market Recap), but I think the chances are remote unless a red day tomorrow (will discuss this if indeed so). I FEEL TERRIBLE FOR BEING WRONG, however, I do hope all of you have noticed what I mentioned in 10/05 Market Recap, a possible 16 more trading days upswing after 10/05 breakout and in 10/22 Market Recap, I also reiterated that bearish intermediate-term view doesn’t equal to a short position, please use my position listed in the table above as reference. So trading wise, if strictly follow my report, bears shouldn’t lose much. Anyway, from now on, I’ll change the way of expressing my expectation to avoid misunderstandings.
About Non Farm Payroll day tomorrow, 2 things to say:
- Generally bullish.
- Intraday pattern usually open high close lower or open low close higher.
The following intraday statistics is from Bespoke:
If Friday’s report comes in significantly stronger and the market opens up, history says not to chase it. If the report comes in much weaker than expected and the market opens down, investors should buy on weakness.
I see lots of bearish extremes today, however as per the current bullishness, I feel all those extremes may not be extreme enough, so to expect a pullback, we may have to wait for a few more days. Below are some of those bearish extremes:
Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50), see bars highlighted in red.
T2111, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(200), the blue horizontal line is the all time high before year 2009, so the reading we have today actually is pretty high.
T2112, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(40), the same wise, the blue horizontal line is the all time high before year 2009, so again the reading we have today actually is pretty high.
Indicators at Extremes from sentimentrader, in a simply sentence, 41% of sentimentrader indicators are now at bearish extremes which is a very high number.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: TO BE REASSESSED
The SPX had a clear breakout of its 3 weeks range on the upside, so the intermediate-term bearish view was a failed call. Will reassess the intermediate-term trend in the weekend report.
SEASONALITY: LAST 2 MONTHS OF YEAR ARE BULLISH
See 10/29 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 10/15 L | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | %B too high with negative divergence. NASI weekly STO(5,3,3) sell signal. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | 07/15 L | |
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | *ChiOsc is too high. | |
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 08/31 L | TOADV MA(10) too high. |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | ChiOsc is too low. | |
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | UP | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 10/29 L | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | *Complex Head and Shoulders Bottom or Double Bottom breakout, target $16.74. |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 11/02 L | |
| XLB Weekly | UP |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
