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SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE LOWER SPX CLOSE AHEAD BUT THE SPX 11/05 HIGH MIGHT BE TESTED AS WELL
Two conclusions:
- Reiterate "77% chances the SPX 11/05 high will be revisited” mentioned in 11/12 Market Recap.
- Very likely SPX will have a lower close ahead (either after the retest of the SPX 11/05 high or continue down from here).
For reasons, see the chart below: According to the most recent patterns, whenever SPX was down 3 days in a row, a lower close ahead was almost guaranteed. And because SPX wasn’t down lot in its 3 consecutive down days, plus the statistics mentioned in11/12 Market Recap, so chances are very good that the SPX 11/05 high could be retested (either higher high or a little bit lower high).
For others, I don’t have much to say as the current chart pattern looks bilateral to me, so need see tomorrow. Gap up huge tomorrow morning then probably the bottom was in today, while red day again tomorrow, buy at tomorrow close and sell at the very first green day close since 1991, you have 79% winning rate.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield, just to explain here since someone asked: ROC(30) >= 9 used to mean a market top, as you can see from 8.2.1a Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2001-2004 and 8.2.1b Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2005-2008, the signals were very reliable. The problem now is because of large scale Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if this signal ever works anymore (for why, if you still are interested, take a look at 8.1.7 Gold vs Oil, basically it relates to whether we’re in an inflation environment). Guess we’ll have to wait and see.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE FIRST 2.5%+ PULLBACK AFTER A 40+ STRAIGHT UP TRADING DAYS WAS USUALLY A BUY
See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, BULLISH FRIDAY, BULLISH THE WHOLE WEEK
See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.
For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 10/15 L | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. |
| IWM | *Black bar on multiple support, rebound? | |
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | Big red bar means more pullbacks ahead, so be careful. | |
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 08/31 L | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | ChiOsc is too low. | |
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | %B is a little too low. |
| FXE | Broadening Top? The breakout is bilateral, so wait. | |
| FXE Weekly | UP | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 10/29 L | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | BPGDM and GDX:SPX both are too high. Pullback? |
| USO | *Black bar on multiple support, rebound? | |
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | %B is too high with negative divergence. |
| XLF | 10/15 L | Complex Head and Shoulders Bottom or Double Bottom breakout, target $16.74. |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 11/02 L | |
| XLB Weekly | UP | XLB:SPX a little too high. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
