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SHORT-TERM: THE LOW COULD BE IN, WATCH SPX 1200 BREAKOUT TO CONFIRM
The low could be in for 2 reasons:
- This is a typical breakout downtrend line then back test the previous low pattern (which could be seen as the 2nd leg down as I’ve been blah blah). Now SPX needs to breakout 1200 to form a 1-2-3 Trend Change pattern to confirm the trend change.
- From time perspective, the pullback has lasted 6 trading days which is right within the 5 to 8 trading days pullback range so far this year.
Since both chart pattern and time conform, so there’re some chances that the low was in. Pay attention, I said “there’re some chances” because if tomorrow the market decisively breakdown below SPX 11/16 lows, then obviously the judgment is wrong. As for whether there’ll be a 5th wave up as per many Elliott Wave analysts, we’ll have to wait until the SPX 11/05 highs decisively broken. The chart below just gives a little concept about the wave 5 theoretical target which could go as high as 1300+.
0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily), this chart also says the low could be in, at least for short-term.
If, I said if, the SPX 1200 is taken tomorrow, confirming the low was in, why I still couldn’t say this is the wave 5 up? Well, there’re some possibilities, the same but bigger 1-2-3 Trend Change pattern are in the play, and that’s why I mentioned above, whether this is the wave 5 up, we’ll have to wait until the SPX 11/05 highs decisively broken. For now, bears better wait, while paying close attention to put call ratio, if after just a few days rebound, the ratio goes crazy again, then chances are very good, the rebound is just to retest the previous high.
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market，INDU had a lower low before SPX which supports the view that the rebound (if any) could just be the retest of the previous high. Please refer HERE for more evidences about INDU Leads Market, if interested.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 2 MAJOR DISTRIBUTION DAYS WITIN 5 DAYS MEANS MORE PULLBACKS AHEAD
The intermediate-term is in danger of entering a downtrend. See 11/23 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEARISH, WEDNESDAY (12/01) BULLISH, WHOLE WEEK BEARISH
See 11/26 Market Recap for more details. For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 11/16 S | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | IWM:SPX too high. |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 11/16 S | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | ||
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 11/16 S | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | *Could be a Bear Flag in the forming. *Double hollow red bar under MA(50), be careful. | |
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 11/16 S | |
| XLB Weekly | UP |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
