SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
No conclusion, let’s see next week.
- Could see some weakness on Monday morning (not sure) because the Friday close wasn’t strong, could be a small Bear Flag in the forming.
- But cannot exclude the possibility of yet another reversal of reversal of reversal of reversal, aka, a huge rally on the next Monday, because I see a Symmetrical Triangle on SPY chart and an Ascending Triangle on QQQ chart, neither are bearish.
- If the conclusion made on 05/06 Market Outlook is still valid then the next week should have 80% chances to close in red.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL
Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.
Two charts worth some attentions:
4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I, never has the negative divergence been this huge, so there’re some possibilities that the intermediate-term is not bright.
OEX Open Interest Ratio still is too high, looks very similar to year 2007.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, BEARISH FRIDAY
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Monday before May expiration, Dow up 19 of last 22, average gain 0.6%.
- May expiration day, Dow down 12 of last 20, average loss 0.2%.
For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
- 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
- 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
- 04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.
- 05/05 Market Outlook: No –1,000 TICK on almost 1% down day, so 05/05 low will be taken soon.
- 05/06 Market Outlook: Bearish in 2 weeks.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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