05/24/2011 Market Outlook (Just a little bearish biased)

SHORT-TERM: JUST A LITTLE BEARISH BIASED

No solid evidences today, my guess is chances are little bit higher on the downside. The argument is QQQ, IWM and RSP all had a lower low today. These indices usually lead. Besides, chart pattern wise, the pullback before the close looks like the very first down leg of at least a 2 legged down, so at least we’ll see some weaknesses tomorrow morning.

The back test below also shows a little bearish edges. Definitely not a good one, just I really couldn’t find anything else to blah blah. ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index < 30, short at today’s close, cover on the very first down day, you’ll have 70% chances since March 2009 bull market. In another word, the back test tells us that there’re 70% chances SPY will have a lower close ahead.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
• 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low, so a bottom is close.

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is too far above EMA(34).
• 4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.
• 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
• 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.
• 05/06 Market Outlook: Bearish in 2 weeks.
• 05/20 Market Outlook: A little bearish next week, either close in red or drops below SPX 1318.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly UP   QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly UP Could be a Double Top in the forming. SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN Could be a Symmetrical Triangle on $WTIC, more likely to continue down. XLE & Weekly DOWN   XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.