SHORT-TERM: CLUELESS, LET’S SEE TOMORROW
Still nothing to say today. The 3 push down followed by 2 legs up scenario I mentioned in 05/23 Market Outlook could be playing now. Although the last 60 min bar doesn’t look good, could be a Shooting Star which means at least some weaknesses tomorrow morning but if once again bears cannot decisively push down the market then the rebound would be very sharp and the rebound size at least be larger than the highlighted area marked in the chart below. So key day tomorrow, let’s see.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL
Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.
ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:
- 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
- 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low, so a bottom is close.
ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:
- 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is too far above EMA(34).
- 4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.
- 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
- 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
- 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.05/06 Market Outlook: Bearish in 2 weeks.- 05/20 Market Outlook: A little bearish next week, either close in red
or drops below SPX 1318.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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