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Monday, February 2, 2009

02/02/2009 Market Recap: Anticipating Firework

Market kept dropping but CPC readings were quite bullish, almost around 0.8 the whole day today. I guess this implies that many are anticipating a FIREWORD from the government. Three points to say:

1. Not sure if we could get a firework, but eventually there sure will be a payback time for extremely low CPC readings. So firework, if any, is a gift to bulls.

2. INDU lower low today, so according to 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, SPX will have a new low which is lower than 804.30. This also complements the above, which says, firework, if any, is a gift to bulls.

3. Market could bounce tomorrow.

 

Let's see the reasons for the tomorrow's bounce first. It's a tough call though, because in chart 1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), ChiOsc shows negative divergence, so market could drop first tomorrow morning.

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, hollow red bar (which means open low close high but still close bellow the last close), usually means a reversal.

SPYShortTerm

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), black bar (which means open high close low but still close above the last close), also means a possible reversal.

VIXDaily

3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), I think oil is building a base, so could bounce at any time (well, sure it can drop at any time, but still 50% chances, it can bounce, right?), this is good for the overall market.

USODaily

 

Now, the firework. 2.8.2 SPX:CPCE, look familiar? Sure, I know, similarity usually does not work, and that's why I said I'm not sure if we can get a firework this time. But here the point is extremely low CPC readings...

SPXvsCPCE

 

1.2.0 INDU Leads Market. Also 1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, TRAN has confirmed the lower low. Not good.

INDULeads

10 comments:

  1. Every Elliott Wave report I read is looking for one more brief push up tomorrow, then a drop. A 38.2% retrace = 837, 50% retrace = 845, 61.8% retrace = 853. Bottom-line, their views fits well with your outlook.

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  2. I know you are a strict chartist, but I thought I'd share some historically reliable sentiment data that you might find useful:

    The AAII poll is considered to be in a 'danger zone' when a downturn in the market can be expected soon once investor bullishness reaches a high level between 50% and 55%. In the other direction, corrections are usually at or near bottoms when bearishness rises to between 50% to 55%.

    In its latest poll last week, the AAII poll showed 47.25% bearish, and only 25.27% bullish. That is a level of fearful sentiment more associated with lows than with tops.

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  3. fyi, here's an interesting counterpoint on USO:

    http://traderplanet.com/blogs/zentrader/2009/02/02/skid-marks-ahead/

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  4. Your hollow red bar reversal call may end up being correct, but I would only point out that all those prior reversals were on higher volume days than yesterday. Two of your three examples had twice the volume of yesterday.

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  5. Also, VIX during the two prior higher volume reversal days was above the upper envelope band, which it currently is not.

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  6. Mike, I agree with you. I did notice the differences last night, but I decided to give bulls some credit here because of low CPC readings.

    And yes, sentiment points to a bottom, and I haven't ruled out the possibility that the market could go up a lot from here yet. Just again low CPC readings have to be corrected first. Let's wait and see. Thanks.

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  7. Why do you note on your S&P500 30-min and 15-min charts that it is a Sell signal when MACD historgrams moved below 0.00 in late January...but not note it as such when the same thing occurred on January 5 and January 20?

    Also, since January 5 (the period available on the 30-min chart), you haven't noted any MACD histograms crosses ABOVE 0.00 as being Buy signals. Why?

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  8. Oh, I might not understand your question correctly. For signals I just market the most recent one, such as today, it's sell signal, so there's only one sell signal there. I don't keep the old signals on the chart.

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  9. You got the question right, but I thought I've seen a number of older signals on the other charts. Is your practice of removing old signals specifically to 30-min and 15-min charts?

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  10. SPY 30min/15 min charts are updated everyday. A few not so important charts may not get updated everyday. Or sometimes the signal is considered as possible whipsaw so I might wait for a few days. Generally, pay attention to the charts I mentioned in my daily report are enough.

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