First of all, correct an error in yesterday's report: According to http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2009/02/2-gaps-down-revisited.html, the latest day for SPY to close above $80.16 is next Monday not this Friday.
From indicator point of view, the market is very oversold. So it could bounce at any time, and I really wish I could know exactly when. However, today's Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships has 1153 stocks price down on decreased volume arguing that the volume has not confirmed the oversold condition yet, so it's still possible we may see another sell off tomorrow. Bears better take some profits if we do have a sell off again tomorrow because it's rare for SPX to be down more than 5 days in a row. Bulls, be patient, not too hurry bottom fishing, as today's report will review my "ultimate oversold" indicators, which in the worst case like Oct 2008, may stay at oversold level for another 3 days.
0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, lots of short-term green, market is very oversold.
1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), 1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), lots of positive divergence, which means, under NORMAL CONDITIONS, we should see a bounce tomorrow.
OK, now let's see my "ultimate oversold" indicators, 7.0.1 Extreme NYADV and NYMO Readings Watch. Whenever both NYADV and NYMO are oversold, the market usually bounces the next day. The only exception was Oct 2008 when the indicator stayed at the oversold level for another 3 days. So, if you really really want to do bottom fishing, better plan the worst case according to this indicator.
My GUESS is that the market is likely to bounce next Monday. The reasons, except the above mentioned statistics which says SPY will close above $80.16 no later than next Monday and 7.0.1 Extreme NYADV and NYMO Readings Watch at that time will be very oversold, according to https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/, its "Fib Cluster Event" and "Phi Mate Turn Date" have both pointed out the next Monday as a bottom.
If we do have a bounce tomorrow, it's actually a bad news for bulls as that means an orderly retreat and therefore the selling is far from over. Please refer to chart 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch for conditions about the bottom. Also even the market rebounds on Monday or after several more consecutive down days, we still need to refer to chart 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch to see if the market has bottomed or not. So far, none of bottom conditions are met.
Your analysis looks great, but perhaps you are over-thinking things. Here's an analysis that involves the simplest of chart-reading:
ReplyDeleteWe are in a downtrend. Being short has been very profitable, and will remain to be profitable until the downtrend ends (which doesn't look to be in the cards anytime soon).
Also, the market appears ready to tank some more today.
So, there you have it, and that could be gleaned by looking at the most basic BigCharts chart and by listening the news headlines. Total time invested: less than two minutes.
Guess what? Maybe technical analysis doesn't get any better than that.