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Wednesday, February 18, 2009

02/18/2009 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row

I think there're good chances that SPY will close above the Tuesday's open which is $80.16 either tomorrow or Friday.

 

This is where the $80.16 idea is from: http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2009/02/2-gaps-down-revisited.html. Because on Tuesday SPY had a larger than 2% gap down, so statistically within 4 days, SPY should close above the Tuesday's open which is $80.16.

SPX has been down 3 days in a row now, which is kind of a good news as from chart 7.0.5 SPX Climax Sell Watch, at least in the past year, there were only 2 cases that SPX was down more than 3 days in a row.

SPXClimaxSellWatch

OK, enough statistics, let's talk about signals:

7.1.2 NYSE - TICK (30 min), blue curve, which is 3 day moving average of the TICK, has reached a two months low today, very oversold. A rebound should be close.

TICK

1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), ChiOsc is till very low, a rebound is sill possible.

QQQQ30min

3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), green dashed vertical lines, USO rallied when both RSI2 and STO had reached certain oversold level. Now we have this setup again with an additional help of extremely low ChiOsc readings. I believe this is also good for the overall market.

USODaily

1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily), USO rally should help the Canadian market. RSI2, STO and ChiOsc on TSX daily chart also argue for a rebound.

TSXDaily

If, however, the market crashes tomorrow and Friday, I'll review some very reliable oversold signals, which will be very helpful for guiding bulls to fight back.

Posted by Cobra at 10:48 PM

7 comments:

  1. darthwhateverFebruary 18, 2009 at 11:09 PM

    Great analysis. Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousFebruary 19, 2009 at 1:54 AM

    Two more days down.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousFebruary 19, 2009 at 9:41 AM

    I've noticed a sell off in the USO and DXO which closely coincides with the expiration of options and futures. This appears to be a tradeable occurrence.

    ReplyDelete
  4. UnknownFebruary 19, 2009 at 1:52 PM

    So we just hope we are not repeating Oct 08 crash (which is common believe pretty much across the board right now)

    ReplyDelete
  5. CobraFebruary 19, 2009 at 1:55 PM

    Yes, all analysis here are based on the assumption that we're not repeating Oct 08.

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousFebruary 19, 2009 at 11:42 PM

    where's Cobra? its 11:40pm est and can't wait to read today's analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  7. CobraFebruary 19, 2009 at 11:54 PM

    Posted on 11:44pm est. :-)

    ReplyDelete

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