Live Update

Sunday, February 22, 2009

02/20/2009 Market Recap: Finally Oversold

Friday's Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships has finally confirmed that the market is oversold, so we shell have a bounce sometime next week. And since I haven't seen any signs of bottom yet, I believe it's a tradable bounce only, not a bottom.

 

Bad news first: 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, 10 year new low! Although some newsletters consider INDU new low without SPX's confirmation to be a positive divergence, but according to chart 1.2.0, if the past rule still applies, I believe that SPX will follow INDU, eventually will have a new low. Besides, again, 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch has not a single bottom signal yet.

INDULeads

 

1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, 1479 stocks price down volume up, finally oversold. Look at the chart, starting from Feb 9, these are series of typical downside price-volume relationships, where at the very beginning, the "price down volume up" was bearish, and during the down trend, the "price down volume down" (not annotated on the chart: either "price up volume up" or "price down volume down") was a sign of continuation, and finally "price down volume up" again which is bullish because it means a possible capitulation.

RUA

2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, looks like a short-term bottom to me.

NATVvsNYTV

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, perfect bounce setup, well, as long as you don't consider the "perfect" as a contrarian sign.

SPYShortTerm

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), 1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), lots of positive divergence arguing for a rebound as well.

SPY30min

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), Bearish Engulf, Bearish Rising Wedge, dollar should drop further which is good for commodities.

UUPDaily

5.0.2 S&P Sector Bullish Percent Index, looks like there's not much room for Financials to drop.

BPFINA

5.2.0 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Daily), right on the support, XLE should rebound.

XLEDaily

And lots of oversold signals from various angles bellow. So again, looks like a "rare" "perfect" sign of a tradable bounce. I'm not a fan of "contrarian", but in case the market is sold off again next week, if I have long, I might turn off the computer and pretend that nothing has happened. LOL

Liquidity Flow and Institutional "shift in direction" from www.stocktiming.com.

rain

SPX Climactic Volume Indicator and SPX Price Momentum Oscillator from www.decisionpoint.com.

SPXCVI SPXPMO

NYSE 4 Weeks New High/Low Ratio from Telechart.

T2122

6 comments:

  1. Sunday Night Coffee - Market Analysis for Upcoming Trading Week - http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/02/sunday-night-coffee-22209.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks. Nice blog. Are you willing to exchange links? I've added your link anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Well my friends,,

    Whats it going to be,, open down then recover nicely?? or red all day??

    Be brave, predict going into Geithners talk.

    Mac

    ReplyDelete
  4. I just add cobramarketview into my blog list

    new hot charts for monday

    http://outperformthesp500withsectorbaseta.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  5. Well, Cobra, you said it was "perfect" bounce formation or "perfect conspiracy." Score one for a perfect conspiracy? :(

    ReplyDelete
  6. Well, it's a sad nature of TA, sometimes "conspiracy" works. :-) And that's why follow the trend is of the most importance.

    ReplyDelete

Disclaimer

The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and chartbook is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market recap do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor.

This websites provides third-party websites for your convenience but the author does not endorse, approve, or certify the information on other websites, nor does the author take responsibility for a part or all materials on the third-party websites which are not maintained by the author.