06/06/2011 Market Outlook (More Selling Ahead)

SHORT-TERM: NOT SURE WHEN TO REBOUND, BUT APPARENTLY THE SELLING ISN’T OVER

Two cents:

1. I’m relatively sure that the selling isn’t over yet. Should see rebound soon, but not sure when. So the trading strategy is to sell the very first rebound.
2. SPX target 03/16 lows at 1249 or MA(200).

See chart below, because RSI keeps having lower low which means the selling is still accelerating, therefore according to the law of inertia, a forward accelerating car cannot move backward before it slows down first, should be more selling ahead. However, the ChiOsc is way too low plus the statistics I mentioned in today’s Trading Signals, my guess is we should see a rebound soon. By the way, also see chart below, such a rebound usually forms a Bear Flag, therefore more likely a sell opportunity.

The chart below also argues for a rebound, but even higher odds, rebound or not, more selling ahead.

The chart below shows the selling target, no solid evidence, just my experience, so concept only. In the past, to avoid being called “subjective”, I’ve tried my best no to mention such a stuff called experience or pattern, but since now many of you have witnessed my intra-day comment where I made lots of calls simply based on the usual pattern or more precisely experiences and known that such experiences could mostly be trusted, so gradually (and already if you’ve noticed), I’d say a little more about those common patterns that mostly come from experiences. Just want you to know ahead, they’re by no means subjective stuff.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• 4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.
• 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks. Failed!
• 05/27 Market Outlook: II Correction % too high, so should be a new high ahead then followed by a real correction. Failed!

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN *Clear breakdown, target March lows as well as MA(200). QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN *Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN XLE & Weekly DOWN   XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.