06/30/2011 Market Outlook (The Very First VIX Touch)

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

Two cents:

1. Most likely today’s high is not the high, so accordingly the very first pullback should be a buy.
2. Either red tomorrow or the short-term top is very close.

Why most likely is today’s high not the high? Still the same reason I mentioned yesterday, a forward accelerating car cannot be stopped without slowing down first. No RSI negative divergence means the car is still accelerating forward.

Why is red tomorrow or short-term top very close? See chart below, because this is the very first time VIX touched its BB bottom (Yesterday’s touch was a wrong data).

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MORE SELLING AHEAD

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THURSDAY BULLISH FRIDAY

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details. Also, see 06/24 Trading Signals for seasonality surrounding the Independence Day.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• N/A

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN   QQQ & Weekly DOWN *NAMO and NAADV MA(10) overbought. IWM & Weekly DOWN SSEC & Weekly DOWN 2 huge consecutive up days usually mean SSEC was bottomed.  EEM & Weekly DOWN XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $17.69. DAX & Weekly DOWN TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly UP *Double Top, target $20.86. GLD & Weekly UP Double Top, target $142.52.  USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN   XLF & Weekly DOWN Bear Flag?  IYR & Weekly DOWN   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.