06/28/2011 Market Outlook (So far goes as planned)

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK WITHIN 2 DAYS

So far the market goes exactly as I planned in 06/24 Market Outlook. See chart below, even I don’t need change a single lines drawn on that day. So tomorrow could be the branch point:

1. Drop directly then it could be the Symmetrical Triangle case.
2. Small rise to higher high then it could be the Bear Flag case.
3. Another huge up day like today, then no argue, say goodbye to bears.

For now, case 1 or 2 have a little bit higher odds. The arguments are supported by many charts I saw today which if the intermediate-term trend still remains down then a pullback should start as early as tomorrow. While no pullback instead a huge up tomorrow, then it’d imply a change in character, something indeed is different now, and this is why I said above, if up huge tomorrow, we’d better say goodbye to bears. The chart below is the most convincing one among all the charts I saw today – NYADV is way too high, so don’t expect a big up day tomorrow if not red. By the way, this chart is also the reason I said in today’s Trading Signals that if up again tomorrow, short at close might have higher odds. Besides there’s an additional reason as according to Stock Trader’s Almanac: Last day of Q2 bearish for Dow, down 14 of last 19 but bullish for Nasdaq, up 12 of 18, although down 6 of last 7.

I don’t see UUP daily chart below as bearish. The reason I mention it today is that it looks like the successful austerity vote would be interpreted as good for the dollar, therefore chances are high we’d see sell on news on the stock market. Besides, the pullback in gold could also imply a strong dollar ahead.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MORE SELLING AHEAD

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THURSDAY BULLISH FRIDAY

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details. Also, see 06/24 Trading Signals for seasonality surrounding the Independence Day.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• N/A

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN   QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN SSEC & Weekly DOWN 2 huge consecutive up days usually mean SSEC was bottomed.  EEM & Weekly DOWN XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $17.69. DAX & Weekly DOWN TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly UP Double Top, target $142.52.  USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN Complex Head and Shoulders Top, target $64.35. XLF & Weekly DOWN Bear Flag?  IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $57.34. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.