06/24/2011 Market Outlook (Up then Down?)

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND AS EARLY AS THE NEXT MONDAY

No solid evidence, the day by day increasing in volume should mean a rebound as early as the next Monday but my feeling from the chart is the rebound is still a sell.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MORE SELLING AHEAD

No solid evidence as well for the intermediate-term, but my feeling from the chart is, sooner or later the March lows will be broken, especially form the Nasdaq 100 weekly chart below. SOX usually leads, so its breakdown should mean that Nasdaq 100 will follow which looks a lot like what happened in year 2007.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THURSDAY BULLISH FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Last day of Q2 bearish for Dow, down 14 of last 19 but bullish for Nasdaq, up 12 of 18, although down 6 of last 7.
2. First trading day in July, Dow up 18 of last 21.

Also:

1. See 06/24 Trading Signals for seasonality surrounding the Independence Day.
2. See 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?
• 06/17 Market Outlook: Net % of all Sentimentrader’s  Indicators at Extreme is very bullish.

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 75% to 81% chances a green next week.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN   QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN *2 huge consecutive up days usually mean SSEC was bottomed.  EEM & Weekly DOWN Chances of breakdown are higher.  XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $17.69. DAX & Weekly DOWN TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly *UP   GLD & Weekly UP Double Top, target $142.52.  USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN *Complex Head and Shoulders Top, target $64.35. XLF & Weekly DOWN *Bear Flag?  IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $57.34. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.