06/21/2011 Market Outlook (Follow Through Wanted)

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

Whether the rally today means something, it’s still hard to say. First of all, it’s very common to rebound to Fib 38.2%. Secondly, there’re chances today’s bar is an exhaustion bar. For detailed back test about the exhaustion bar please refer to 05/31 Market Outlook, which basically says there’ll be a pullback in a very short-term.

I know some would argue, confirmation after confirmation, once finally being convinced the low was in, it’d be too later. Well, trading wise, if keeps up or just small pullback tomorrow, I’d be on the bull side while sharp sell off, I’d stay with bears. This is for short-term trade of course (See today’s Trading Signals which clearly states that the short-term is up). For the intermediate-term, please also refer to today’s trading signals, officially, it’s still down.

Two additional things I’d like your attention today:

ChiOsc is way too high, so we could see some weakness tomorrow morning. Considering the extremely high NYADV I mentioned in today’s Trading Signals, so I’m now more inclined to believe we’ll see a pullback tomorrow.

ISEE Equities Only Index closed at 250 which is way too high, although it’s not as extreme as reading 300 but still it’s a rare reading that shows we retailers are way too bullish.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT WEEK

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 11 in a row and 18 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.2%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?
• 06/17 Market Outlook: Net % of all Sentimentrader’s  Indicators at Extreme is very bullish.

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 75% to 81% chances a green next week.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN   QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target 2166. EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $17.69. DAX & Weekly DOWN TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN   GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming. XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $57.34. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.