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*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: JULY IS THE BEST PERFORMING DOW AND S&P MONTH OF THE 3RD QUARTER
See 07/02 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: REBOUND (IF ANY) THEN MOST LIKELY THERE’LL BE A 2ND LEG DOWN
See 07/02 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: INITIAL TARGET 1075ISH, TIME TARGET AROUND 07/12
Rebound over? Most likely not. Because the size and the time are not enough.
Let’s see the size first. See chart below, blue lines are the pullback size of the recent 3 down legs. The down size was down from 154 point to 133 point to 120 point which means the downside strength was weaker and weaker, so logically, the rebound this time could be bigger than the previous 3 times. At least it should equal to the min rebound size of the previous 3 which was 64 point (see black lines). So far we had 49 point rebound, so could still miss 15 points, right?
Now look at the time. See chart below, red cycles on the top. The shortest rebound time for the previous 3 times was 5 trading days, while so far the rebound we have now takes only 3 trading days, so at least there’re 2 more trading days to go, right?
So to combine all above and applying the multiple Fib confluences area, the most conservative price target should be around 1075ish and the time target should be around 07/07 to 07/11 time window as I’ve been blah blah for awhile. Because 07/11 is weekend, so 07/12 is also fine. The chart below, hope you still remember, I’ve mentioned in 07/02 Market Recap about the amazing symmetry in time on the SPX daily chart, the next time window is also on 07/12.
Last but not the least, let me remind you the seasonality in the following several days – they mostly look very bull friendly.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.
