07/08/2010 Market Recap: 2 Minor Bearish Signs

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 1 of 2 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 07/07-07/11 07/11 / 07/07 07/12, 07/31, 08/20-08/23, 10/02 Next pivot date: 07/12

BULLISH BEARISH

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model     *Stopped out the position entered on 07/01 with loss. *Short tomorrow if SPY tomorrow’s open > SPY tomorrow’s close. The stop loss will be 1.9 x ATR(10). Non-Stop(RSP) 06/30 S N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: JULY IS THE BEST PERFORMING DOW AND S&P MONTH OF THE 3RD QUARTER

See 07/02 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: REBOUND THEN MOST LIKELY THERE’LL BE A 2ND LEG DOWN

See 07/02 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: MAINTAIN INITIAL TARGET 1075ISH AND TIME TARGET AROUND 07/12

I see 2 minor bearish signs today. They don’t mean that the market will start to pullback tomorrow, but short-term (within 5 trading days) could be bearish. This fits well with the pivot date around 07/12 I mentioned recently. So maintain the forecast of the initial price target around 1075ish and time target around 07/12.

6.4.6a QQQQ Black Bar Watch, QQQQ black bar usually means a short-term top could be very close.

 

6.4.4 SPY Price Volume Negative Divergence Watch, SPY rise 3 days in a row but volume down 2 days in a row, short at today’s close, it’s generally profitable within 5 days. If you pay a little bit more attention on the chart, you should find it too argues a short-term top could be very close.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

	TREND	*DTFMS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN		4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565. *6.4.6a QQQQ Black Bar Watch: Black may mean short-term top is very close.
IWM	DOWN		Ascending Broadening Wedge, target $54.97.
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP
EUROPEAN	UP	*BUY	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45.
CANADA	DOWN		4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP	*SELL
EURO	UP	BUY
GOLD	UP		4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Be careful of the non-confirmation of SLV and GDX.
GDX	UP		4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high.
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	DOWN		4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN		4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Sitting on very important support.
REITS	DOWN		4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	DOWN		4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top, target $23.27.