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SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER JULY EXPIRATION, DOW DOWN 7 OF LAST 11
See 07/16 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE 2ND LEG DOWN COULD HAVE STARTED
See 07/16 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: CPC AND VIX ARE VERY BULLISH
All I wanted to say are in 07/16 Market Recap. Even if you truly believe a huge huge bull ahead, the correction we’re having in terms of time is still not enough as the mini mini correction time should be at least to 08/02, so chances are very good that before that final date, we’ll see a 2nd leg down. The only question now is whether the 2nd leg down has started or not? CPC closed at 0.72 today which means that option traders are very very bullish, so does this mean that the rebound since 07/01 isn’t over yet? I have no idea, need see tomorrow.
Why is CPC closed at 0.72 very very bullish? Because this reading could trigger a so called Firework setup which worked pretty good in the year 2008 bear market. Again I suggest you taking a little time to read the History of the Firework trading setup to get better understandings about why it’s bullish. The question is whether the Firework works now or not? I have no idea. The most recent Firework was reported in 06/28, the market sold off hard the next day.
Besides the very bullish CPC, VIX still shows divergence with the SPX. Also from 0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily), VIX looks bearish which too argues that the stock market could rebound further.
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, just to remind you, because option traders are very bullish today, so the trend line failed to hold which could mean the top signal is not confirmed. I’m not sure because there’re cases in the past when trend line failed to hold but the market still was topped.
So to summarize, all the blah blah above actually are saying one thing: I’m clueless about the short-term, the market may not be as bearish as it appears.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
