The bottom line, the short-term trend is down but not confirmed yet.
Has the 2nd leg down to test the 07/01 low started? I have no idea. Because except for those pivot dates arguing for a top, I have no other evidences. Right now it seems the 07/27 pivot date was right on time, but ironically, I don’t remember when my pivot date was EXACTLY on time, so from contrarian point of view, the 07/27 may not be THE TOP. But on the contrarian contrarian point of view, for having so many pivot dates not exactly on time, maybe this time I got lucky? LOL
For tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, let’s see if the seasonality chart below plays out again or not this time.
By the way, the price volume negative divergence setup I mentioned in 07/26 After Bell Quick Summary, surprisingly, it worked again. It looks like a very bad setup, but the winning rate actually is not that bad. The reason I mention it is maybe (I’m not sure) this could be the evidence to support the short-term trend is down argument I made above.