08/26/2010 Market Recap: Will the 4th time be different?

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is down, I hold both short and long overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/26, 9/10 08/24 / 08/23 8/23 Next pivot date: 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: the 3rd Hindenburg Omen triggered. T2105 too high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICS ARE BEARISH

See 08/20 Market Recap and 08/24 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: UP TOMORROW, BUT DOWN THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEK?

No hard evidences today, but 2 speculations, for fun only.

I said yesterday, whether the 08/25 bullish reversal bar means a bottom, needs a follow-through. Too bad, there’s no follow-though today. So does this mean that 08/25 is not a bottom? The chart below shows the most recent bottom pattern: A bullish reversal bar followed by Dark Cloud Cover all had led to a huge up bar the next bar which for now is tomorrow. The question is whether the 4th time will be different? Anyway, at least whether the market has bottomed, we have to see tomorrow, agree?

 

In 08/20 Market Recap, I said if red week this week, then be careful about the very first 4 consecutive down weeks this year, in another word, if red this week, then probably red the next next week. Looks to me now, unless a miracle happens tomorrow otherwise this week will likely end in red.

 

6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch can be seen as an insurance for a red next week, because it seems the last week of every month since Aug 2009 were more likely bearish (Stockcharts counts the next week as the last trading week in August not the first trading week in September).

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	DTMFS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN
IWM	DOWN
CHINA	UP		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	DOWN		4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	DOWN
CANADA	UP	SELL
BOND	UP		4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO	DOWN
GOLD	UP	BUY
GDX	UP	BUY	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	DOWN
FINANCIALS	DOWN		4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	DOWN		4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	DOWN

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.