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Wednesday, August 18, 2010

08/18/2010 Market Recap: CPCI Little High

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 1 of 2 are SELL   Sell signal to be confirmed.
Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is up but I hold no position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
8/26 08/24 / 08/23 8/23 Next pivot date: 08/23 – 08/26
BULLISH
BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen? So market will crash?
T2105 too high.
0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: too low, still at top?
*0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI a little high.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only.
ST Model 08/17 L 1.9*ATR(10)
*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLLISH

See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

  1. The correction since 04/26 isn’t over. See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.
  2. The 07/01 low may be tested. See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND TARGET 1106 TO 1110, COULD LAST TO 08/23

Maintain the price and time target mentioned in 08/17 Market Recap.

All I wanted to say has already said in today’s After Bell Quick Summary. The very unique thing today was a big guy bought huge amount of index put that caused the CPCI (CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio) skyrocketed high and ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index dropped to an extremely low point. What does this mean? As usual, this report doesn’t care why or how, let’s simply read some charts, what happened thereafter when the above extremes were recorded recently? Well, looks to me the future is not very bright for bulls although it doesn’t mean today is a top. Besides, don’t forget all the bearish signs listed in the table above are still valid, so again, I still don’t think the rebound this time could go too far.

CPCIWatchISEEWatch 

On the other hand, I do find some very bull friendly charts, so does it mean that the market has more on the upside? I’m not sure, simply list these charts below for your info only (well, isn’t everything in this blog for your info only? LOL).

3.0.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily), huge negative divergence on RSI and MACD below plus a reversal like black bar, so bond may pullback which means the stock may rise.

TLTDaily 

3.3.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), 3 reversal like bars in a row, so oil could rebound which is good for the stock market.

USODaily 


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
  TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ UP
IWM UP  
CHINA UP
EMERGING UP 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN UP
CANADA UP
BOND UP
EURO UP
GOLD UP
GDX UP
OIL UP *2 reversal like bars in a row, so rebound?
ENERGY UP
FINANCIALS UP
REITS UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS UP
Posted by Cobra at 9:27 PM
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