Live Update

Monday, August 16, 2010

08/16/2010 Market Recap: Still Look Like a Top?

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 1 of 2 are SELL   Sell signal to be confirmed.
Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term Model is SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Shorted on 08/11, added on 08/16, hold partial overnight.
GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
8/26 08/24 / 08/23 8/23 Next pivot date: 08/23 – 08/26
BULLISH 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: NYDNV:NYUPV > 35, bottomed?
BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen? So market will crash?
*T2105 too high.
*0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: too low, still at top?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 08/16S N/A *Close long initiated on 07/15, sell short on 08/16.
*For general direction guide only.
ST Model *Setup no confirmed on Monday but still valid. Long if up day tomorrow.
*The stop loss will be 1.9*ATR(10) if long signal confirmed.
*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLLISH

See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

  1. The correction since 04/26 isn’t over. See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.
  2. The 07/01 low may be tested. See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: MAY SEE A REBOUND BUT IF INDEED MAY NOT GO TOO HIGH

I’ve mentioned all the good news (for bulls) in today’s After Bell Quick Summary. Since 3 reversal like bars have formed on chart 0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, so it’s likely that the market has already bottomed. The question is, if indeed (the market has bottomed), how far the rebound could go? Personally, I don’t think the rebound could go too far, in another word, I don’t think the pullback since 08/09 has ended.

Listed below are all the evidences arguing why the rebound, if any, could not go too far, as these signs usually mean a top instead of a bottom. All the charts should be enough self explanatory so no more words here.

0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume.

 NYTV

T2105.

T2105 

6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals.

VIXToVXVRatio 


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
  TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ UP
IWM UP  
CHINA UP
EMERGING UP 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN UP
CANADA UP
BOND UP *Breakout!
EURO UP
GOLD UP
GDX DOWN
OIL UP
ENERGY UP
FINANCIALS UP
REITS UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS UP
Posted by Cobra at 7:56 PM
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