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Monday, January 3, 2011

01/03/2011 Market Recap: ISEE Equities Only Index Above 300 Again

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
01/05-01/07 01/04 : 01/06 Next pivot date: 01/07
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 24 unfilled gaps, the max is 24.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually?
*8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
12/14 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.
8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
*0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is *UP. I hold partial long position overnight.
MY STRATEGY:  STOCK BOND EURO OIL GOLD
Long but I will be very careful here. Long Long Long

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE ON THE UPSIDE

All I wanted to say are already in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, seldom a strong up day failed right away, so probably there’s more on the upside. We’ll still need pay attention to extremes, especially today’s ISEE Equities Only Index closed above 300 again which is way too bullish. So still I believe a pullback is just a matter of time and I’ll temporarily maintain the forecast for calling pivot date around 01/05 to 01/12.

ISEEEquitiesOnlyIndexWatch

Another top signal today is both CPC and CPCE are extremely low. The most recent case was on 12/13, although didn’t work well as before but still it worked, so pay attention.

ExtremePutCallRatioWatch

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

See 12/31 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, JANUARY’S 1ST 5 DAYS IS AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

See 12/31 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 12/21 L
NDX Weekly UP  
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA Clear breakdown below consolidation range, be careful.
CHINA Weekly UP Should have set the trend to down from up but I’ll see how the market rebounds.
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 12/02 L TOADV MA(10) a little too high.
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT Breakout, so TLT could be bottomed. Need watch the trend line resistance though.
TLT Weekly UP
FXE 3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): 1-2-3 trend change, so dollar could be topped.
FXE Weekly DOWN
GLD Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 12/17 S
GDX Weekly UP
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 12/01 L
XLB Weekly UP BPMATE is way too overbought.

  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
Posted by Cobra at 7:38 PM
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