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SHORT-TERM: INTC ER COULD BE A PIVOT POINT
The tale today is INTC ER, so far from AH, it looks great, but statistically (courtesy of Bespoke), it means sell at open tomorrow.
Also as illustrated in the chart below, INTC ER was more likely the pivot point for the broad market.
The statistics below is from Sentimentrader, which I think fits for our current situation. Looks like the following couple of weeks are not so great. Especially, now the seasonality says the same thing, click the link to see chart 8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010, with no exception, from the 8th trading day of the year until end of the January, QQQQ performance was bad.
| QQQQ Performance When Intel Reports And QQQQ Is Within 2% Of A 1-Year High | |||
| Date | Two Weeks Later | Max Loss | Max Gain |
| 04/13/99 | -1.6% | -10.7% | 4.7% |
| 07/13/99 | -1.9% | -5.9% | 4.2% |
| 10/12/99 | -2.8% | -9.1% | 0.1% |
| 01/13/00 | -1.7% | -8.5% | 7.0% |
| 07/15/03 | -2.6% | -5.1% | 0.7% |
| 10/14/03 | -0.0% | -5.2% | 1.5% |
| 01/14/04 | -2.7% | -3.7% | 2.4% |
| 01/17/06 | -1.3% | -3.8% | 0.3% |
| 04/19/06 | -1.9% | -3.2% | 0.5% |
| 01/16/07 | -2.7% | -4.4% | 0.0% |
| 04/17/07 | 2.8% | -1.0% | 3.4% |
| 07/17/07 | -4.6% | -6.5% | 0.9% |
| 10/16/07 | 4.1% | -1.7% | 4.2% |
| 10/13/09 | -2.8% | -3.0% | 2.9% |
| 01/14/10 | -7.8% | -8.1% | 0.5% |
| Average | -2.1% | -5.0% | 2.2% |
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12
See 01/07 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
See 12/31 Market Recap for the January seasonality chart.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 01/10 L | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | UP | Should have set the trend to down from up but I’ll see how the market rebounds. |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 01/06 S | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful. |
| TLT | Breakout, so TLT could be bottomed. Need watch the trend line resistance though. | |
| TLT Weekly | UP | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming. | |
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 12/17 S | 1-2-3 trend change confirmed, so GDX could be topped. Be careful about gold itself. |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area. |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 01/06 S | |
| XLB Weekly | UP | BPMATE is way too overbought. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
