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SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS THE NEXT WEEK
We could see some weakness the next week. Also on the intermediate-term, if there’s ever any possible bear counter-strike, the next week would be the best chance, otherwise, bulls will be safe until at least 01/26 FOMC.
Let’s begin with the short-term pullback signals:
- The SPX weekly price volume negative divergence setup mentioned in 01/07 Market Recap is till valid, therefore there’re 71% chances, SPX would close below 1271 within 2 weeks.
- Seasonality according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, January Expiration Week horrible since 1999, Dow down big 8 of last 11.
- 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch, both CPC and CPCE are way too low. The signal was formerly an intermediate-term signal, but looks like now it’s only effective for 2 to 3 days, but no matter what, the most important of all, this indicator still works.
- 6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB), VIX closed below BB bottom which is a potential SPX short setup, wait for VIX rising back into BB.
- 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), we could see some weakness at least the Tuesday morning because the RSI is overbought (unlike daily RSI, SPY 60 min RSI generally works well) and ChiOsc a little too high.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12
The price and time target I’ve been blah blah for the intermediate-term has finally been met, although the time target seems a little too early but let’s give it another week, see whether the forecast is good or bad.
The charts below are all the weekly extremes I’ve collected, so from the indicator point of view, the price and time forecast for the intermediate-term may stand a fair chance to be correct. But, again and again, the most important is till the price pattern must confirm. Before seeing at least a 1%+ down day and close almost low of the day, to be a bear is a very dangerous job. And besides, don’t forget, even we do get such kind of 1%+ down day, a general pattern for an important top is reversal of reversal of reversal, which means a big daily red bar usually is followed by a big daily green bar, this basically means bulls would have plenty of chances to escape, so, overall, the situation is not friendly at all to bears, please just don’t forget this.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, BEARISH FRIDAY, HORRIBLE WHOLE WEEK
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- First trading day of January Expiration Week, Dow up 13 of last 18.
- January Expiration Day, Down down 10 of last 12.
- January Expiration Week horrible since 1999, Dow down big 8 of last 11.
The chart below is about the seasonality around Martin Luther Kind Jr. Day, looks like post holiday wasn’t so great.
Also see 12/31 Market Recap for the January seasonality chart.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 01/10 L | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | *Too far away from MA(200) and BPNDX is way too overbought. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | UP | Should have set the trend to down from up but I’ll see how the market rebounds. |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 01/06 S | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful. |
| TLT | *0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling? | |
| TLT Weekly | UP | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | *1-2-3 trend change, wait for further confirm, GLD may fall into a downtrend. | |
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 12/17 S | 1-2-3 trend change confirmed, so GDX could be topped. Be careful about gold itself. |
| GDX Weekly | *DOWN | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | *Too far away from MA(200). |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area. |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | |
| XLB | 01/06 S | |
| XLB Weekly | UP | BPMATE is way too overbought. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
