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SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE ON THE UPSIDE
Whether the yesterday’s high is the high or today’s low is a low, I have no clue (well, as usual), need see tomorrow (again, as usual). Generally, the previous high should at least be tested once because we earth people like to try twice before giving up and turning to the opposite. In the language of indicator, it means a negative divergence of RSI is needed before a little bigger pullback is possible which right now is still missing. So purely from the price pattern, looks like there’s one more push up ahead at least.
The bear need watch today’s low for a possible 1-2-3 trend change. If indeed, then because of the possible time resistance, see chart below (the original idea is from Elliott Wave International), 1 = 5 and 2 = 4 in terms of trading days, this time, bear may have a better chance. By the way, if 1 = 5 in terms of price, then SPX target should be 1291, as since today is the 25th trading day since the wave 5 started, so bull still have 2 days (26 to 27 trading day) to achieve this goal, in theory, of course.
Nothing else to say, I mentioned that when both CPC and CPCE are low, it could mean a top of some kind yesterday, today the CPC and CPCE still are very low, so I’d like your attention. Click 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch to see the chart yourself.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12
See 12/31 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, JANUARY’S 1ST 5 DAYS IS AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
See 12/31 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 12/21 L | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | UP | Should have set the trend to down from up but I’ll see how the market rebounds. |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 12/02 L | TOADV MA(10) a little too high. |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | Breakout, so TLT could be bottomed. Need watch the trend line resistance though. | |
| TLT Weekly | UP | |
| FXE | 3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): 1-2-3 trend change, so dollar could be topped. | |
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming. | |
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 12/17 S | *Watch for potential 1-2-3 trend change. If GDX topped then be careful about gold itself. |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | ||
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 12/01 L | |
| XLB Weekly | UP | BPMATE is way too overbought. |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
