SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
No new argument today. Could be a Diamond Bottom in the forming which although has the word “bottom” but in reality 50% chances it means a continuation, so we’ll have to wait for the breakout to get to know the direction next. My guess is the market may consolidate around here for awhile forming either Bear Flag or Rectangle before another leg down.
Nothing else to say, two unique things today I’d like your attention, my guess is they could mean a gap up and green tomorrow.
- Although up a lot yesterday, but the money flows was very negative, so as the result a huge down day today, while strangely, the money flow today was very positive, so does this imply a huge up day tomorrow?
- It’s very very rare for SPX to drop more than 2% while TICK managed to close above zero. Since the year 2008, there’re only 2 such a cases like today, one down day the next day while one up day the next day, so I don’t see any edge from it, but let’s remember this anyway, as we’ll soon know what it really implies.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000
See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST
See 07/29 Market Outlook for more details. Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
08/04 Market Outlook: Relief rally could be within 3 trading days.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
08/01 Market Outlook,08/02 Market Outlook, 08/05 Market Outlook, 08/08 Market Outlook: Rebound, if any, is sell.
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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