08/24/2011 Market Outlook (May see pullback tomorrow but more upside ahead)

SHORT-TERM: MAY SEE PULLBACK TOMORROW, NOT SURE, BUT LIKELY MORE UPSIDE AHEAD

The market closed at a very subtle position, for the follow 3 reasons, there’re some chances we’ll see a pullback tomorrow. Just because all the reasons are based on the chart pattern, there’re no 3rd party evidences supporting the view, so I’m not sure, need see tomorrow. One thing is certain though, chances are very high that today’s high is not the high. I don’t mean the market will be up huge from here, I’m just saying that there’ll be a higher close within several days.

• Anytime back test the previous high, there’re some chances of reversal. Besides, the 2nd to the last 15 min bar looks like an exhaustion bar to me.

• The 3 push up mentioned in the chart above is more clear on the Global ES, so we might see 2 push down from here, although there might be one more push up to form either slightly higher high or lower high first.

• The Fib 61.8% target mentioned in the yesterday’s report was reached today. If indeed this is a failed rally, then it should stop somewhere around here.

Then why are chances high that today’s high is not the high? Because Non-Stop issued a buy signal today. From the statistics below we can see there was no single case in the past that such a buy signal was given at exactly the market top. In another word, after a buy signal given, at least SPX would be up a little within a few days. By the way, those who follow Non-Stop, should close short and take long tomorrow. Beware of the risks on the long position though, because right now the long term signal is on the sell side.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

Please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 08/18 Market Outlook: Relief rally could be within 3 trading days.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 3 of 3 SELL Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *BUY mode. Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken. EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold. XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Long term support broken. IYR & Weekly DOWN   XLB & Weekly DOWN 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE oversold.

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.