SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
No new stuff, so if not interested, just take a look at the evil plan below and forget the rest. The only thing would change my call for breaking below Aug 9 lows is decisively break above the Aug 17 highs and never fall back a single cent below the Aug 17 highs (so called no overlapping). I don’t mean to test the Aug 9 lows immediately, as it’s quite possible the rebound would last for a month or two (Rising Wedge case). Trading wise, since the table below shows the short-term is up plus both Cobra Impulse System and Non-Stop are in buy mode now, so I’m more willing to bet on the long side (very careful though) until the short-term changes into downtrend.
Call me stubborn, but, really really, it’s very very very very very rare that THE LOW was in:
- The sell off we just had was way too strong which automatically implies a 3 legged down (Why? You Earth people can never overcome the law of inertia). The chart below still looks missing one last leg at least.
- Still no visible positive divergence on NYMO.
- Comparing with the past rally from the bottom, the Friday’s intraday pullback was way too big therefore the overall rebound looks like a ZigZag pattern instead of a 5 waved impulse up to galaxy far far away.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS
See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH TUESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- August’s next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 14 years.
- First trading day in September, S&P up 11 of last 15, back-to-back huge gains 1997 and 1998, up 3.1% and 3.9%.
Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- N/A
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
- N/A
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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