SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
I don’t feel good about today’s market. A Hollow Red Bar (Close > Open but Close < Last Close) followed by a Filled Black Bar (Close < Open but Close > Last Close), both have strong implication of a reversal therefore cannot exclude the possibility that the top was already in. We’ll have to see tomorrow of course, so let’s say, it’s an orange warning for now.
The chart below is a relatively bullish bearish view, as from the chart pattern, it feels still missing one last push up. If however, decisively break above today’s high tomorrow, then the view would be invalid and so does that orange warning. So again, let’s see tomorrow.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000
See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Monday before August expiration, Dow up 11 of last 15.
- August expiration day bullish lately, Dow up 7 in a row 2003 – 2009.
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
08/04 Market Outlook: Relief rally could be within 3 trading days.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
- 08/02 Market Outlook, 08/05 Market Outlook, 08/08 Market Outlook, 08/09 Market Outlook: Rebound, if any, is sell.
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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