SHORT-TERM: SIZEABLE REBOUND WITHIN 3 DAYS BUT SPX LOWER CLOSE AHEAD ALMOST GUARANTEED
Two conclusions:
- Expect rebound and close in green as early as tomorrow, or a sizeable rebound within 3 trading days.
- The selling isn’t over yet, most likely the 08/09 lows will be broken.
The chart below is what I see through my crystal ball, should help to understand the 2 conclusions mentioned above.
The chart below explains why a sizeable rebound is within 3 trading days. As for why expect rebound and close in green as early as tomorrow, please refer to today’s Trading Signals, there’re 88% chances.
Why isn’t the selling over yet?
- NYADV too low, it almost guarantees SPX will close below today’s close soon. Besides, don’t forget, SPX still owns a lower close (below 08/10 close) . From the past successful rate of the chart below, it’s very rare fort both forecasts to fail, so at least SPX will close below today’s close.
- For NYMO to form a visible positive divergence, SPX lower low is the must which means the 08/09 lows will be broken.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000
See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Monday before August expiration, Dow up 11 of last 15.
- August expiration day bullish lately, Dow up 7 in a row 2003 – 2009.
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 08/18 Market Outlook: Relief rally could be within 3 trading days.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
08/02 Market Outlook,08/05 Market Outlook,08/08 Market Outlook,08/09 Market Outlook: Rebound, if any, is sell.
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
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