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Monday, January 12, 2009

01/12/2009 Market Recap: Oversold, yes, but not very

1. Market oversold，but not very oversold. This can be seen by today's Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships where there are 1277 stocks price down on volume down, representing a continuation of the current selling process, and at the same time there are 1126 stocks price down on volume up representing an oversold tension. So I'm not sure if the market will bounce tomorrow.

2. Financials breakdown important support, not good for the overall market as once a breakdown occurs, it tends to ignore any oversold signals for a while.

 

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), RSI oversold, STO and ChiOsc are at an extreme position which probably mean a bounce at least tomorrow morning.

SPY30min

SPX Climactic Volume Indicator from www.decisionpoint.com, red circle, if down again tomorrow, CVI will probably down to an extreme level only seen in Oct and Nov last year, therefore might be a good chance for buying dips (for aggressive traders only).

SPXCVI

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), overbought, testing resistance, might pullback which may support a possible bounce tomorrow.

VIXDaily

3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily), overbought, negative up volume, might pullback which may support a possible bounce tomorrow.

FXYDaily

1.0.6 S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index, another intermediate-term sell signal again today. Check chart 0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights to get the overall picture of the current trading signals.

 

5.0.1 Select Sector SPDRs, breakdown the XLF and XLE, both weight the most in all the major indices, not good.

Sectors

Posted by Cobra at 10:37 PM

2 comments:

  1. AnonymousJanuary 13, 2009 at 1:05 AM

    Dear Yong Pan,

    Judging from your charts, it appears the probabilities are shifting to an intermediate-term downward move. Based on current data, do you believe the downward move will reach a re-test of the November lows, or do you expect something different?

    As always, thank you for your insightful analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  2. CobraJanuary 13, 2009 at 11:50 AM

    Just a wild guess, I expect a higher low.

    ReplyDelete

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